SWODY1
SPC AC 161948
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2008
VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES TROUGHING FROM POLAR VORTEX OVER CANADIAN
ARCTIC...SWD ACROSS HUDSON BAY REGION AND GREAT LAKES. SRN EXTENSION
OF THIS HEIGHT WEAKNESS BENDS SWWD ACROSS TN VALLEY AND LOWER MS
VALLEY REGIONS...WWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX INTO QUASISTATIONARY CYCLONIC
SHEAR ZONE ALOFT OVER PORTIONS NM/AZ. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL
DOMINATE PATTERN FROM INTERIOR PACIFIC NW SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SEWD
ACROSS ROCKIES. FARTHER W...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER PACIFIC JUST OFFSHORE SFO AREA -- SHOULD LIFT
NEWD ACROSS COASTAL NRN CA DURING REMAINDER PERIOD.
AT SFC...WAVY FRONTAL ZONE -- ANALYZED FROM EXTREME SRN NC SWWD
ACROSS SC...S-CENTRAL GA...FL PANHANDLE AND NERN GULF...SHOULD DRIFT
SEWD AS COLD FRONT AGAIN THROUGH REMAINDER DAY-1.
...SERN CONUS...
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS CAROLINAS COASTAL AREAS AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAIN. SVR
POTENTIAL APPEARS MRGL/ISOLATED...HOWEVER...HAIL OR VERY
BRIEF/DAMAGING GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM BEST-ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTION. SFC-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD PREDOMINATE FROM
IMMEDIATE FRONTAL AREA EWD THROUGH SEA BREEZE REGIME...WITH SOME STG
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY. LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE FCST TO REMAIN WEAK ACROSS MOST OF THIS
REGION...ALTHOUGH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH NWD
EXTENT OVER CAROLINAS BENEATH LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF NERN CONUS 250
MB JET MAX. ASSOCIATED WEAK ASCENT ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
WAA...IS EXPECTED SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED/ELEVATED TSTMS ON COLD SIDE OF SFC FRONT AS WELL. WEAK
LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT BUOYANCY...BUT
ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE STILL IS
POSSIBLE IN NARROW ZONE BETWEEN FRONT AND COAST.
...WRN CONUS...
RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON ACROSS BROAD SWATH OF WRN
CONUS...PRIMARILY SW OF UPPER RIDGE...AND ENHANCED BY CONTINUED
DIABATIC SFC HEATING. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT TSTM POTENTIAL
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS AT LEAST MRGL...WITH INITIATION
PRIMARILY OCCURRING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE CINH IS WEAKEST.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WILL BE PRESENT OVER PORTIONS INTERIOR NRN CA/ORE
IN REGIME OF WEAK DPVA...AHEAD OF EJECTING PACIFIC TROUGH. STG
LOCAL GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN PRESENCE OF DEEP/WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD
LAYER BENEATH HIGH BASED CONVECTION.
..EDWARDS.. 09/16/2008
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