SWODY1
SPC AC 120050
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
VALID 120100Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN MO/NRN AR/NERN OK...
SEVERAL MINI SUPERCELLS...WITH REPORTED TORNADOES...HAVE EVOLVED
WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS FROM EXTREME NERN OK INTO SRN MO/NRN AR.
00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING
WITHIN A FAIRLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG NRN FRINGE OF
SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD DIURNAL
HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING GREATLY TO THE RECENT BRIEF/WEAK TORNADOES.
LATEST THINKING IS DIURNAL COOLING WILL GREATLY IMPEDE THIS TYPE OF
ACTIVITY...BUT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY
PRODUCE ONE OR TWO TORNADOES ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF BROADER PRECIP
SHIELD FROM SRN MO INTO NRN AR.
...LA...
NRN OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE IKE WILL BEGIN TO SKIRT COASTAL
PORTIONS OF LA OVERNIGHT. ENELY FLOW HAS INCREASED WELL NORTH OF
STRONGER BANDS AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY PROVE
ADEQUATE FOR STORM ROTATION AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
...AZ...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALL BUT OVERTURNED INSTABILITY
ACROSS SRN AZ THIS EVENING. OVERALL TRENDS ARE DOWN WITH ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS MARICOPA AND PIMA COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR
SOME HAIL BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.
..DARROW.. 09/12/2008
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