SWODY1
SPC AC 270100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008
VALID 270100Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM N CNTRL MN INTO EXTREME NW
WI...
...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...
A LINE OF SCATTERED STORMS EXTENDS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NE
THROUGH N CNTRL MN. AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS IN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES
WITH SWWD EXTENT ALONG THE FRONT FROM SW MN THROUGH ERN SD INTO NRN
NEB...SUGGESTING SWRN EXTENTION OF THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN
CONVECTIVELY INACTIVE. THE STORMS OVER NRN MN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
SEWD NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT WITH AN OVERALL DECREASING TREND DUE TO
THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LIFT IS DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING PARCELS
TO THEIR LFC. ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SWLY 40-50 KT BULK SHEAR
WITH FEW BOWING SEGMENTS INDICATED ON RADAR. ISOLATED HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.
...NC AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...
WARM SECTOR HAS SPREAD THROUGH ERN NC INTO CNTRL AND ERN VA. WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION WITHIN ZONE OF
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER WRN SC. THE UPPER LOW AND CORRESPONDING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
HAVE GRADUALLY WEAKENED DURING THE DAY WITH A REDUCTION IN SIZE OF
LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR
UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE...BUT MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND WEAKENING
INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT
ANY SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT.
..DIAL.. 09/27/2008
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