SWODY1
SPC AC 161615
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2008
VALID 161630Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTHEAST...
PRIMARY INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SHUNTED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING/STALLING SURFACE
FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM PORTIONS OF SERN
NC/ERN SC INTO FL. ADDITIONAL...ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
WITHIN REGION OF DEEP ASCENT JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER UPSTATE
SC INTO NRN NC THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND WARM AIR ALOFT...ALONG WITH MARGINAL SHEAR...WILL
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
...WESTERN STATES...
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER MUCH OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...WHILE SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVERSPREADS NRN CA INTO WRN ORE TODAY. RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LARGE AREA OF WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG
PERIPHERY OF .5-.7 PWS EXTENDING AROUND EDGE OF LARGE ANTICYCLONE.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MORE CONCENTRATED AREA
POSSIBLE NEAR THE SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL IMPULSE OVER PARTS OF NRN
CA/SWRN ORE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MINIMAL...ALTHOUGH A
STRONGER GUST IS POSSIBLE DUE TO VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
..EVANS/GRAMS.. 09/16/2008
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