SWODY1
SPC AC 111940
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
VALID 112000Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FOUR CORNERS REGION...
WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WRN STATES WITH A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM WRN AZ NNEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN UT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS MID-LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE FROM NEAR THE
COLORADO RIVER IN FAR WRN AZ EXTENDING NEWD TO NEAR THE UT
STATE-LINE. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ESPECIALLY IN SW AND WCNTRL AZ WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S F TO THE LOWER 60S F SHOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE
THREAT. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT ACROSS
THIS AREA. NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS ECNTRL
UT...RUC DATA SUGGESTS MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IS IN PLACE WITH
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM. THIS ALONG WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT /500 MB TEMPS FROM -12 TO -16 C/ AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE
MULTICELLS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH
OF I-70 IN SERN UT WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP AND
SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO ABOVE 70 F.
...SRN LA/FAR SRN MS...
HURRICANE IKE WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE MID TO UPPER TX COAST
TONIGHT. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH IKE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WNWWD INTO
SRN LA THIS EVENING AND THE OUTER MOST RAINBAND ON THE NRN SIDE OF
IKE SHOULD REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST OF LA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS GRADUALLY INCREASE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 30 KT ACROSS MUCH OF SRN LA BY MIDNIGHT. THIS
ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS NEAR 750 METERS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD.
..BROYLES.. 09/11/2008
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