SWODY2
SPC AC 091728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2008
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
AMPLIFY SEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY. IMPULSES EMBEDDED
WITHIN SWLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT NEWD INTO
THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGIONS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
SEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS AREA...
SELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES IN WAKE OF RETREATING RIDGE WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MODIFIED CP AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 RETURNING NWD THROUGH NEB AND SD BENEATH PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE
RATES. THE MOISTURE RETURNING NWD THROUGH AN INITIALLY COOL AIRMASS
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A BAND OF STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALONG
WITH EWD ADVECTION OF THE EML WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE MOIST
WARM SECTOR BEING CAPPED MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR EARLY CLOUDS
MAY DELAY DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL...BUT WHERE HEATING DOES DEVELOP
MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE. INITIAL SURFACE BASED
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP NEAR OR WEST OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHERE DEEPER
MIXING AND STRONGER SURFACE HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKER CAP.
OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY IN VICINITY OF SEWD
ADVANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT
ACTIVITY CONTINUING OR ADDITIONAL STORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SD
SPREADING INTO MN. OVERALL KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 25-30 KT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MOSTLY MULTICELLS STRUCTURES. A
FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL FROM LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...BUT OVERALL THREAT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME.
...S FL...
HURRICANE IKE WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE SERN GULF AND IS FORECAST BY
THE NHC TO CONTINUE WNWWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SOME OF THE OUTER BANDS MAY STILL AFFECT SERN FL ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...TRENDS SHOULD BE FOR SHEAR PROFILES
AND ANY TORNADO THREAT TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY.
..DIAL.. 09/09/2008
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