SWODY2
SPC AC 111725
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX AND LA
COASTAL PLAINS...
...TX AND LA COASTAL PLAINS...
HURRICANE IKE IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO MOVE
TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TX COAST FRIDAY WITH THE MORE
WELL-DEVELOPED OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING STARTING FRIDAY MORNING
AROUND 12Z. BECAUSE OF THE LARGE AREA AFFECTED BY HURRICANE
IKE...RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE TX AND LA
COASTAL PLAINS ALL DAY FRIDAY AND ALL FRIDAY NIGHT. IKE IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TX COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK
ON SATURDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
SHOW THE GREATEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN SRN LA. THIS
SUGGESTS A TORNADO THREAT MAY BE ONGOING IN SRN LA AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MODEL FORECASTS BEGIN TO
INCREASE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE TX COASTAL
PLAINS AS THE OUTER RAINBANDS MOVE FURTHER INLAND. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASING TORNADO THREAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE TX
COASTAL PLAINS WITH ROTATING STORMS THAT REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISCRETE ON
THE EDGE OF IKE OR WITH MESOCYCLONES EMBEDDED IN THE OUTER
RAINBANDS. LCL HEIGHTS REALLY DROP ALONG THE TX COAST FRIDAY EVENING
CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE EYE OF IKE APPROACHES.
THIS COULD BE THE TIME OF GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF THE EYE FROM NEAR HOUSTON TX NEWD TO BATON ROUGE LA
WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED.
...SRN PLAINS/OZARKS/OH AND TN VALLEYS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES WITH SWLY FLOW IN PLACE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES
EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND OH VALLEY. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD CONTINUE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES EWD ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...BEING POSITIONED FROM
CNTRL MO SWWD ACROSS KS INTO WRN OK AND WEST TX BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS SHOW ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE. FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OZARKS...OH VALLEY AND
TN VALLEY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER AND WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. THIS COMBINED WITH THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT A MARGINAL WIND
DAMAGE THREAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 09/11/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment