SWODY2
SPC AC 180525
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPR AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED ON FRIDAY WITH
PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS WELL N IN CANADA WITH WEAKER SRN AND
SUB-TROPICAL BRANCHES EXISTING OVER THE STATES. WITHIN THE
LWR-48...MOST CONVECTIVE CONCERNS WILL CONCENTRATE ON THE UPR LOW
MOVING INTO THE PAC NW/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND THE SUBTROPICAL
IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE MID/LWR MS VLY REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
...NWRN CONUS...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE COMMON SOLUTION WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPR LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING VCNTY 41N137W. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO A WAVE OVER SRN ORE/NRN CA FRIDAY
AFTN...THEN LIFT NEWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODEST DIFFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN FRIDAY AFTN WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR TSTMS ACROSS NRN PARTS OF CA/NV NWD INTO PARTS OF ORE. THESE
STORMS MAY LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS THEY MOVE NEWD THROUGH ID AND
PERHAPS NRN UT. WHILE THERE WILL BE LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTING NWWD
FROM THE DESERT SW...IT APPEARS THAT PWATS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AOB
0.75 INCHES. NONETHELESS...STRONG TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND LATER
OTLKS MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE SVR PROBABILITIES.
...LWR MS VLY...
WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY
REGION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE. ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE N OF THE OLD FRONT THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE
GULF WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS. STRONGEST TSTMS
WILL FAVOR OFFSHORE WATERS AND NEAR CSTL SRN LA AMIDST MORE ROBUST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND 50-60 KTS OF H25 FLOW. DESPITE MINUS
8-10 DEG C H5 TEMPERATURES...LAPSE RATES BELOW THAT WILL BE RATHER
POOR...LIMITING SVR WEATHER PROSPECTS. IN THE EVENT THAT THE CSTL
FRONT MOVES FARTHER N THAN EXPECTED...PARTS OF SRN LA MAY NEED LOW
SVR PROBABILITIES IN FUTURE OTLKS.
..RACY.. 09/18/2008
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