SWODY2
SPC AC 190527
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL ENSURE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THE
COUNTRY EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY. NRN STREAM TROUGHING
OVER SERN CANADA WILL ALLOW A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TO SURGE INTO
THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH A
LATE AFTERNOON POSITION EXPECTED FROM SRN LOWER MI...WWD TO NEAR THE
MN/IA BORDER. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED
ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT. WITH SFC TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR A FEW
ROBUST UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER SHEAR PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.
...MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...
FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION UNTIL GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE KICKS IT EWD INTO THE TN
VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY
MOIST PROFILES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
WILL EASILY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
AGAIN...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION AND STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC.
...ROCKIES...
GREAT BASIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WY/CO LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MID LEVEL MOISTENING WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ENHANCING BUOYANCY AND THE PROSPECT FOR DEEP
CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM ID/WRN
MT...SWD INTO NM...AND PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
..DARROW.. 09/19/2008
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