DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 281715
SWODY2
SPC AC 281713

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2008

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AMPLIFYING WITH TIME...AS
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE OH VALLEY AND VICINITY.
MEANWHILE...THIS WILL AID IN THE EXPANSION OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...A
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
COUNTRY.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION...AND MORE SLOWLY SWD
INTO THE SRN PLAINS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE...A WEAK LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT ACROSS SRN FL IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER VORT MAX EXPECTED TO DO LIKEWISE...WHILE THE
REMNANTS OF KYLE MOVE NNEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/LOWER MO VALLEY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM UPPER MI/WI SWWD
INTO ERN KS/MO...AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS WARM
SECTOR HEATING/MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

ATTM...DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION REMAINS A PRIMARY QUESTION WITH
RESPECT TO THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL -- AS IT APPEARS THAT
MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE YIELDING
AMPLE SHEAR FOR LOCALLY-STRONGER/ORGANIZED STORMS. ATTM...WILL
REMAIN CONSERVATIVE REGARDING THE PROSPECTS FOR DESTABILIZATION --
AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A 5% THREAT AREA FOR MARGINAL
HAIL/LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IF IT APPEARS THAT AMPLE
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF
A FAIRLY STRONG/DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND AMPLE KINEMATICS
ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE.

..GOSS.. 09/28/2008

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