SWODY3
SPC AC 010729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR/LA/MS...
...ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH/OZARKS...
PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF
GUSTAV...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE EXTRATROPICAL
IN NATURE WHILE REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE ARKLATEX
VICINITY. IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST NHC FORECASTS AND 00Z-BASED
GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS /40-50 KT
850 MB/ AND 0-1 KM SRH WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF GUSTAV THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS /LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS/...AT LEAST ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS AIDED BY MODEST INSOLATION/SOMEWHAT
HIGHER SBCAPE. PENDING THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF GUSTAV/CORRESPONDING
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THE INCREASING INTERACTION WITH A
STALLING NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO/EASTERN OK/FAR NORTHERN AR MAY ALSO BE A FACTOR FOR
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.
..GUYER.. 09/01/2008
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