SWODY3
SPC AC 190711
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT EJECTING A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE...H5 FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 25-30KT...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT/FOCUS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE FOR DEEP CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST DEEP VEERING PROFILES WITHIN A FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT STORM ROTATION. WHILE THE MAIN LIMITATION FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE THE
SOMEWHAT WEAK INSTABILITY...IT DOES APPEAR SFC-BASED CAPE COULD
APPROACH 1000 J/KG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS. SHEAR
PROFILES WILL ALSO BE STRONGER WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER
CO/KS. IF FORECAST INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THIS REGION...IN
LATER MODEL RUNS...THEN AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NECESSARY
FOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
..DARROW.. 09/19/2008
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