SWODY3
SPC AC 280729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2008
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
STATES IS PROGGED TO REMAIN GENERALLY STRONG...WHILE CONSOLIDATING
IMPULSES WITHIN THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER
DEEPENING. DISCREPANCIES EXIST CONCERNING THE DEGREE TO WHICH A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
AND ANOTHER LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO PHASE. BUT...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SIGNIFICANT COLD INTRUSION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIANS
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES SWD THROUGH THE SRN APLCNS...
THE LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT/CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR TUESDAY IS STILL UNCLEAR DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE
SPECIFICS OF THE PATTERN EVOLUTION. WITH MOISTURE LEVELS EXPECTED
TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN THE WAKE AN UPPER SYSTEM NOW BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... POTENTIAL FOR
SEASONABLY STRONG DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LOW. THIS PROBABLY WILL
MINIMIZE SEVERE POTENTIAL. BUT...A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD FORM IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ...ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND WITHIN A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH TO THE LEE OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND BLUE RIDGE.
..KERR.. 09/28/2008
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