SWOD48
SPC AC 010845
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...HIGHLIGHTED BY A GRADUAL EAST-SHIFTING LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL STATES. INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THE INLAND
REMNANTS OF GUSTAV...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO HAVE BECOME MORE
EXTRATROPICAL IN NATURE BY DAY 4/THURSDAY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH/OZARKS. WHILE GUSTAV/ASSOCIATED FLOW FIELDS WILL
LIKELY HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY BY DAY 4/THURSDAY...SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL MAY LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY...PERHAPS AIDED BY A
STALLED/WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF GUSTAV REMNANTS
PRECLUDES A DELINEATION OF SEVERE/TORNADO PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME.
OTHERWISE...LATEST NHC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TROPICAL STORM HANNA COULD
APPROACH PORTIONS OF FL/GA/CAROLINAS THROUGH DAYS 4/5
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. ACCORDINGLY...A TORNADO THREAT COULD EXIST THE LAST
HALF OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
OTHER SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK /DAYS 4-6
THURSDAY-SATURDAY/...WITHIN A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME
BENEATH THE SOUTHWARD-SHIFTING UPPER TROUGH/JET ALOFT.
..GUYER.. 09/01/2008
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