SWOD48
SPC AC 200837
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE NRN STREAM WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL GRADUALLY
SAG SWD ACROSS CANADA INTO THE NRN U.S. NEXT WEEK...WHILE UPPER
RIDGING WILL HOLD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SWRN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. ONE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY GENERATE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ALONG WRN FRINGES OF DOMINANT SFC
RIDGE WHERE LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROVE WEAK. DESPITE THE STRONG
FORCING...MEAGER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS THIS REGION.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP IN LATER PERIODS...TIMING OF
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES WILL PROVE DIFFICULT BEYOND THE DAY4
PERIOD AS WLYS INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
..DARROW.. 09/20/2008
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