SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061240
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-061445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2226
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT SAT SEP 06 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN NC...SERN VA...SERN MD.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 890...
VALID 061240Z - 061445Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 890 CONTINUES.
PRINCIPAL TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITH MAIN OUTER BAND OF
TS HANNA THAT IS EVIDENT ATTM FROM OUTER BANKS OF NC SWD OVER
ATLANTIC. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INVOF THIS BAND SUGGEST THAT ANY
RELATIVELY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE STORMS MAY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...IN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-700 J/KG. ASSOCIATED
HODOGRAPHS SHRINK CONSIDERABLY FROM THERE INWARD TOWARD
CENTER...BASED ON RELATIVELY VEERED FLOW IN MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND OBSERVED VWP AND SFC OBS. ALSO...CONVECTIVE MODE AND COVERAGE
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE SWWD TOWARD CENTER WITHIN APPARENT DRY SLOT.
THEREFORE...PRIND WW CAN BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY BAND. VIS
IMAGERY INDICATE SOME CLOUD BREAKS WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN DELMARVA
REGION AHEAD OF BAND...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING ENOUGH INSOLATION TO
BOOST LAND SFC TEMPS BY 2-4 DEG F...AND BY EXTENSION...SLIGHTLY
INCREASE MLCAPES IN PROSPECTIVE CELL INFLOW SECTORS TO AROUND
500-800 J/KG.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK OF LAND AREA REMAINING FOR SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL. NHC FCST INDICATES CENTER OF TS HANNA WILL ACCELERATE
AND TURN MORE NEWD IN ITS TRACK THROUGH REMAINDER OF VALID TIME FOR
WW 890. IN STEP WITH THAT CYCLONE MOTION...ADDITIONAL EWD
TRANSLATION OF AXIS OF OUTER BAND WILL MOVE IT LARGELY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT FOR SOME INTERACTION THAT MAY OCCUR WITH IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREA.
REF NHC ADVISORIES -- E.G. WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC -- FOR LATEST
TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOR HANNA.
..EDWARDS.. 09/06/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...
35217559 35987593 36837640 37167681 38007651 37917590
38417618 38637603 38697573 38447567 38447504 38147514
37797547 37427570 37097588 37097599 36937600 36907597
36387581 35747550 35537545
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