SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072044
NMZ000-072215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2228
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT SUN SEP 07 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 072044Z - 072215Z
ISOLATED HAIL AND A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NM. MARGINAL SHEAR AND
LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A WATCH.
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWED STRONGEST SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR EXTENDED FROM NRN MEXICO THROUGH FAR W TX AND SERN NM.
MEANWHILE...GREATEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/ WAS
GENERALLY DISPLACED NORTH OF THE STRONGEST SHEAR...WITH SOME OVERLAP
ACROSS SERN NM. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED TSTMS HAD ALREADY
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF NM INTO NORTH CENTRAL NM WHERE
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING THIS
ACTIVITY. THE BEST LOCATION FOR MORE SUSTAINED TSTMS AND POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED HAIL SHOULD BE ACROSS MAINLY SERN NM WHERE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE JUXTAPOSED FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION.
..PETERS.. 09/07/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
32260545 32530612 33120632 34000608 34760589 34530383
34330326 33250318 32710314 32120373 32050474
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