SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080444
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-080615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2230
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CDT SUN SEP 07 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...E CO...SW NEB...WC/NW KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 891...
VALID 080444Z - 080615Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 891
CONTINUES.
DEEPENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCD WITH THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LVL WAVE IN COMBINATION WITH MOIST ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WERE
SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE TSTMS ALONG BOTH A FRONTAL SURGE IN NE CO AND
JUST NE OF A 1009 MB LEE LOW OVER SE CO. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
AND INCREASING FLOW IN THE MID/HIGH-LVLS HAS BOOSTED EFFECTIVE SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NRN TSTM
CLUSTER VCNTY KAKO.
H5-H25 JET OVER THE MO VLY WILL INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE APCHG TROUGH WITH A CONCOMITANT ENHANCEMENT OF
H85-H7 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS PRIMARILY WC-NW KS. AS A
RESULT...TSTMS WILL MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY ENEWD ACROSS YUMA AND KIT
CARSON COUNTIES IN CO AND INTO KGLD-KHLC REGIONS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
PRIMARY SVR THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS
GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS E CO AND FAR NW KS.
INCREASING NLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ACROSS THE
FRONT RANGE/ADJACENT HIGH PLNS OF CO BEHIND THE FRONTAL SURGE WILL
DECREASE THE THREAT FOR REDEVELOPING STORMS FROM KGXY TO ERN METRO
DENVER.
..RACY.. 09/08/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
41170379 40399908 38859872 38299919 38360430 39930476
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