SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081822
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-081945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CDT MON SEP 08 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN MO AND SRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 081822Z - 081945Z
SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR SPI TO
ABOUT 60 N OF SGF. WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN MO AND
SRN IL.
SUNSHINE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY HAD WARMED TEMPERATURES INTO UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S AHEAD OF THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS WAS
RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE AIR MASS WOULD BE UNCAPPED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...AND ONE SUCH STORM WAS
LOCATED W OF DEC. WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING...STORMS SHOULD BACK BUILD
SWWD DOWN THE FRONT ACROSS IL TO NEAR STL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. DESPITE WEAK WINDS IN THE LOWER 1-2 KM ...STRENGTHENING WINDS
ALOFT WERE RESULTING A NARROW CORRIDOR OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 40-50
KT NEAR THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...IF
UPDRAFTS CAN BE SUSTAINED...THE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.
..IMY.. 09/08/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...
39698811 39348750 38618766 37358889 36649189 36839289
37739314 38339273
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