SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091611
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-091745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2238
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT TUE SEP 09 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/LONG ISLAND TO DELMARVA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 893...894...
VALID 091611Z - 091745Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
893...894...CONTINUES.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 893/894 CONTINUE UNTIL 20Z...WITH A
CONTINUED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN
ENGLAND/LONG ISLAND TO THE DELMARVA VICINITY.
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...250+ MILE LONG STRONG/SEVERE SQUALL LINE
WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
ENGLAND/LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN MD/DE VICINITY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WITH A GENERAL 40 KT EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE
LINE AMIDST RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /40+ KT 0-6
KM/...PRE-LINEAR MODEST CLOUD BREAKS/STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE SQUALL
LINE SPREADS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. IN SPITE OF THE LINEAR
CONVECTIVE MODE...SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH
THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS OWING TO THE EXISTENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/AMPLE PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY PER 12Z OBSERVED RAOBS.
WHILE DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY QUASI-DISCRETE TSTMS
OR MODEST BREAKS IN THE CONVECTIVE LINE GIVEN A MOIST AIRMASS /UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS/ AND MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
..GUYER.. 09/09/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...AKQ...LWX...
42667211 42617047 41467028 38367510 38677728 40387482
41467317
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