SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102247
SDZ000-NEZ000-110015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2244
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0547 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN NEB AND SWRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 102247Z - 110015Z
TSTM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS
OF WRN NEB AND SWRN SD. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE IF
STORMS CAN ORGANIZE. A WW IS POSSIBLE.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES. ANOTHER WEAK PERTURBATION APPEARS TO BE
MOVING NEWD OVER PARTS OF NRN CO AND SRN WY PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/MBW PROFILER. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION WILL LIKELY AID IN FURTHER
TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE N-CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. AT 2230Z...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM PARTS OF
THE WRN DKTS EXTENDING SWWD INTO N-CENTRAL WY. LOW PRESSURE IS
LOCATED NEAR PHP WITH A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH/WIND-SHIFT EXTENDING
SWD INTO ERN CO.
STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTN IN WAKE OF ERODING
STRATUS DECK FROM EARLIER TODAY. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT MAY EXIST IMMEDIATELY ALONG/NEAR SURFACE
TROUGH WHERE TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 80F. INITIAL MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN TO 35-40 KTS /0-6
KM/...SUPPORTING STORM ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL. MARGINAL TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY /500-1200 J/KG/ HAS DEVELOPED SUGGESTING THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND/LARGE HAIL
THREAT.
..SMITH.. 09/10/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...
41330291 41580297 42750254 43550250 44320184 44390133
44240101 43930070 41880153 41210178 41100239 41140285
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