SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102315
AZZ000-CAZ000-110015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2245
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 896...
VALID 102315Z - 110015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 896
CONTINUES.
SEVERE TSTM WATCH 896 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL AZ...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
HAIL/DOWNBURSTS.
AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
CA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A
WARM/VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AZ OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS LA PAZ
COUNTY AS OF 23Z...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THIS ACTIVITY AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT FARTHER EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ /SOUTH OF PHOENIX/
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD/NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS />1 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND 55-60 F SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AZ/...SPECIAL 20Z RAOB FROM PHOENIX REFLECTED THE RELATIVELY STRONG
INSTABILITY /1400 J PER KG MLCAPE/ THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AZ. BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHERN CA UPPER LOW...25-30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE
TO CONTRIBUTE TO RELATIVELY SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED MULTICELLS CAPABLE
OF SEVERE HAIL/DOWNBURSTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..GUYER.. 09/10/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
35831450 36401321 34701100 32221025 33161433
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