SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111844
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-112045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2246
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN UT...WRN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 111844Z - 112045Z
THE RISK FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS APPEARS
TO BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
...IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL UTAH
INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO. THIS IS WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
APPEARS STRONGEST TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
NOW SHIFTING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. A
MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER SYSTEM IS CONTRIBUTING
FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
COULD SUPPORT MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BY PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING. ALTHOUGH LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE SOMEWHAT
LIGHT...CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG BENEATH 50+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY HIGH LEVEL FLOW...AND THIS COULD ENHANCE THE THREAT
FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN ISOLATED STRONGEST CELLS. AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/BECOME MORE DEEPLY MIXED...
LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN NEW
ACTIVITY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO.
..KERR.. 09/11/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...FGZ...SLC...
38351185 39541109 40151110 40751042 40970917 40350706
39380652 37960690 37110816 36860975 36991152 37651189
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