SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230637
MNZ000-NDZ000-230700-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2279
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ND/NWRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 907...
VALID 230637Z - 230700Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 907
CONTINUES.
ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NERN ND/
NWRN MN THROUGH 09Z. PARTS OF WW 907 MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN
TIME BEYOND 07Z EXPIRATION.
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A PROGRESSIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SERN ND /45 SW JMS/...WITH A LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING
SSWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONGEST
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCATED TO THE NE OF THE SURFACE LOW
AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NEWD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS REMAINDER OF WW 907
HAS WEAKENED...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET /50-60 KT/ JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE TO 1 KM MAY REACH THE SURFACE WITH SOME OF THE DOWNDRAFTS.
HOWEVER...WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL AS
ACTIVITY SPREADS NEWD AT 40 KT ACROSS NERN ND/NWRN MN.
..PETERS.. 09/23/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
46729824 47589907 48139984 49069947 49159715 48989494
47639528 47159686
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