SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231813
NDZ000-232015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2281
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 231813Z - 232015Z
TSTMS CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW A BAND OF MOIST CONVECTION
DEEPENING IN AN ARC FROM RENVILLE AND BOTTINEAU COUNTIES SWWD MORTON
AND GRANT COUNTIES AS OF 1805Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEP ZONE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO VIGOROUS
VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. DESPITE THE
POST-FRONTAL LOCATION OF DEVELOPING STORMS...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS
SUGGEST THAT AIR MASS HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...OWING LARGELY
TO THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.
..MEAD.. 09/23/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
46370154 47990123 48680110 48930051 48959933 48799859
48079808 47409810 46839818 46239855 46029975 46050099
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