SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242040
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-242245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2284
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO / SWRN NEB / WRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 242040Z - 242245Z
THE THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST ACROSS AREA INTO THIS EVENING. A WW IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
RECENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA SHOW A COUPLE AREAS OF
DEEPER...AGITATED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...ONE IN THE LEE OF THE FRONT
RANGE W/SW OF AKO...AND THE OTHER NEAR AND JUST SE OF GLD.
RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR STRONG DIABATIC HEATING
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THIS HEATING IN CONJUCTION WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM ARE RESULTING IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNIBLE UPSTREAM IMPULSES PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA AND CONVERGENCE ALONG AND E OF
WAVY LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISMS FORCING WIDELY
SCATTERED...DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT MCCOOK PROFILER
APPEARS QUITE REPRESENTATIVE OF AMBIENT KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT...FEATURING PRONOUNCED VEERING THROUGH THE LOWEST 3-4 KM
AGL WITH 30-35 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. AS SUCH...SETUP WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
..MEAD.. 09/24/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...
37940148 38700200 39020285 39720356 40250369 40590316
40660159 40340060 39399995 38349993 37690002 37570081
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