SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260237
NCZ000-VAZ000-260430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2289
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0937 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL NC/FAR SOUTHEAST VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 260237Z - 260430Z
A RISK FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL NC/FAR SOUTHEAST VA. A TORNADO WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
NON-TROPICAL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE NC/SC COASTAL BORDER THIS EVENING. ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS LOW...SOME LOW LEVEL ROTATION HAS BEEN NOTED WITHIN A
RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED/CONCENTRATED ARCING BAND MOVING INLAND
NEAR THE JACKSONVILLE/MOREHEAD CITY NC VICINITIES. 00Z MOREHEAD CITY
RAOB AND MORE RECENT WSR-88D DERIVED WIND DATA IMPLIES AROUND
200-300 MS/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH. BUT IN SPITE OF A RATHER FAVORABLE
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES...WEAK LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/SHALLOW STABLE LAYER PER THE 00Z MOREHEAD CITY RAOB
SHOULD KEEP THE NOCTURNAL TORNADO RISK ISOLATED/BRIEF IN NATURE.
WITH THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS EMANATING FROM A WARM/MOIST ATLANTIC
AIRMASS...THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST AS THIS ACTIVITY
CROSSES THE ROUGHLY NNE-SSW ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITHIN 50-75
MILES OF THE COAST.
..GUYER.. 09/26/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...
36887609 36047536 34507642 34687756 35317764 36257716
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