MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2292

ACUS11 KWNS 261516
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261515
MNZ000-NDZ000-261645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2292
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND INTO NRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261515Z - 261645Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM LATE
THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARD. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATE A SURFACE LOW N OF PIR WITH ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR RRT SWWD THROUGH THIS LOW INTO
W-CNTRL OR SWRN SD. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS ALREADY POTENTIALLY
MODERATELY UNSTABLE OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF QUITE STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 8.0-8.5 C/KM /PER 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS/. RECENT
TRENDS IN RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA SHOW TSTMS GRADUALLY
INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT OVER E-CNTRL/SERN ND...LIKELY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD
INTO CNTRL ND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH
THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...PERHAPS EVENTUALLY LINKING WITH
BACKBUILDING STORMS IN PROGRESS OVER N-CNTRL MN.

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CONSIDERABLE
DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF FRONT TODAY ACROSS MN. THIS
HEATING...COMBINED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-2000
J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...SETUP
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

..MEAD.. 09/26/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

46559732 48679512 48719321 48229185 47029255 46019507
45999653

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