SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262214
MNZ000-WIZ000-262345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2294
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 908...
VALID 262214Z - 262345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 908
CONTINUES.
SEVERE TSTM WATCH 908 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z...WITH RISKS OF SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MN NEAR THE
GRAND RAPIDS VICINITY /AS OF 2145Z/...WITH OTHER ATTEMPTS AT NEAR
SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH WEST OF ST CLOUD PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ALL...TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD STEADILY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN...AS LARGE FORCING FOR ASCENT/GRADUAL
HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADS THE REGION OWING TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE DAKOTAS PER WV IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH A STRONG ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER NOTED IN UPSTREAM MORNING OBSERVED RAOBS MAKES THE SOUTH
EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNCERTAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
MN...SOME CONCERN EXISTS FOR A SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
EXISTING WATCH. AS SUCH...WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF WW 908 EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WITH
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT PER REGIONAL PROFILERS/WSR-88D DERIVED DATA
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS WITH A
PRIMARY RISK OF SEVERE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY.
..GUYER.. 09/26/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
48119486 48509297 47939031 46819201 45929273 45349333
45069439 45259544 45859617 47009553
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