DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 080551
SWODY1
SPC AC 080548

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT WED OCT 08 2008

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPR JET CORE IN EXCESS OF 150 KTS IS EXPECTED TO STREAK
ACROSS THE NPLNS AND GRTLKS REGION WEDNESDAY...EFFECTIVELY SEVERING
THE UPR TROUGH SITUATED FROM THE GRTLKS TO THE LWR MS VLY. NRN
PARTS OF THE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE NERN STATES WHILE THE
SRN UPR LOW DECELERATES OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CSTL REGION.
IN THE LWR LVLS...A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ESE ALONG A WRMFNT FROM
MIDDLE TN TO ECNTRL AL BY 00Z TO CSTL SC BY 12Z THURSDAY.

...ERN GULF/SERN STATES...
GFS/ECMWF REMAIN MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SRN STREAM UPR LOW AND
THE NAM HAS TRENDED THAT WAY. LARGE SWATH OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT
DERIVED CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE FROM THE TN VLY SWD
INTO THE ERN GULF CST REGION AT 12Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EWD INTO THE SERN STATES AND NRN FL DURING THE DAY...LIKELY
MAINTAINING OR LIMITING THE NWD RETURN OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THUS...STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY NOT DEVELOP TOO FAR NWD
INTO AL OR GA. HOWEVER...AS THE UPR LOW AND ASSOCD 45-50 KT WSW
FLOW APPROACH THE REGION SRN AND WRN EDGES OF EARLY DAY ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AND/OR DEVELOP OVER SRN/ERN AL...SWRN GA AND
FL PNHDL DURING THE AFTN. HERE...COMBINATION OF NEAR 70F SFC DEW
POINTS AND SOME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG.

INCREASING WSW MID-LVL FLOW WILL BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR ISOLD SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWS WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS OR
HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...THOUGH LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
WEAK...MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INVOF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE COULD BE
CONDUCIVE FOR A BRIEF ISOLD TORNADO...PRIMARILY FROM EC/SE AL SEWD
INTO NRN FL.

..RACY/SMITH.. 10/08/2008

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