DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 090601
SWODY1
SPC AC 090559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT THU OCT 09 2008

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN FL AND ADJACENT SERN
GA...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG/EXPAND ACROSS THE WRN CONUS
THIS PERIOD...RESULTING IN AMPLIFICATION OF A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER
THE ERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS RIDGE...A WEAKENING CUT-OFF LOW WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
WEST/ROCKIES...WHILE A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN U.S. UPPER LOW
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DESPITE THE WEAKENING...THIS LOW-LEVEL
FEATURE -- AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER CIRCULATION -- WILL AGAIN SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PORTION
OF THE SERN CONUS.

...NRN FL/SERN GA...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF NRN FL/SERN GA AND THE
CAROLINAS THIS PERIOD...THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST
ACROSS THIS AREA. SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING/DRYING WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE UPPER LOW/COLD POOL WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE LIMITED HEATING CAN OCCUR.
THIS MODEST/DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF FL/ERN GA -- WHILE A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW S OF
THE UPPER LOW PROVIDES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN FL AND ADJACENT SERN GA...WHERE GREATEST
COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEARS MOST LIKELY. WHILE
MARGINAL HAIL SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SETTLES SEWD INTO THIS REGION...LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AS CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD COMBINES WITH DIURNAL
COOLING/STABILIZATION.

..GOSS/SMITH.. 10/09/2008

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