SWODY1
SPC AC 110534
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED UPR FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND. PRIMARY STORY
WILL BE THE SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE STRONG UPR LOW FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF HURCN NORBERT WILL
QUICKLY BECOME DECOUPLED AND EJECT NEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH WEAKER DISTURBANCES PRECEDING IT.
DOWNSTREAM...PESKY UPR LOW RESIDING OFF THE GA/SC CSTS WILL
RETROGRADE WWD BENEATH THE BUILDING UPR RIDGE OVER THE ERN STATES.
IN THE LWR LVLS...A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
REDEVELOP E OF THE DIVIDE INTO SE CO SATURDAY AFTN AS STRONG
LOW/MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS EVOLVES FROM WY SWD INTO AZ. THIS FRONT
WILL SWEEP SEWD TO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONG TSTMS. TO THE EAST...THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS SETTLED INTO
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT NWD BY SATURDAY EVENING.
TO ITS SOUTH...A LEE TROUGH WILL EXIST SWD FROM SE CO TO FAR W TX.
...CNTRL PLNS SWWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES...
MULTI-PRONGED CONVECTIVE EVENT WILL UNFOLD OVER A FAIRLY LARGE REAL
ESTATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MID AND HIGH-LVL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NEWD FROM NORBERT INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ATOP
IMPROVING BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS. MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL UNDOUBTEDLY SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS
THAT WILL PROBABLY LIMIT HEATING. NONETHELESS...MIXED LAYER CAPE
VALUES SHOULD AT LEAST RANGE FROM 500 J/KG OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN
NM TO 1000-1500 J/KG OVER FAR SE NM/W TX WHERE LESS CLOUDS AND MORE
ROBUST LOW-LVL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED.
SPORADIC TSTMS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL MORE THAN LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN FROM NERN SONORA/NRN CHIHUAHUA INTO SE
AZ AND SW/SCNTRL NM. SLIGHTLY HIGHER TSTM AND SVR PROBABILITIES
WILL EVOLVE DURING PEAK HEATING E OF THE NM DIVIDE AMIDST MOIST SELY
UPSLOPE FLOW...FOCUSING ON THE TERRAIN AND LEE TROUGH. SWLY MID-LVL
FLOW OF 50-60 KTS...TIED TO THE MID-LVL REMNANT OF NORBERT...ATOP
SELY LOW-LVL FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELLULAR WIND PROFILES...WITH
STRONGEST STORMS FAVORING THE HIGHER INSTABILITY OVER SE NM AND FAR
W TX. STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ENE TOWARD THE TX/CO BORDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PROBABLY EVOLVE LINEARLY CONTAINING BOWS/LEWPS WITH LARGE
HAIL...DMGG WINDS AND ONE OR TWO TORNADOES. NRN REACHES OF THESE
STORMS WILL APPROACH PARTS OF ERN CO...WRN KS AND NEB LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH PERHAPS ISOLD HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.
FINALLY...A LINE OF STG TO ISOLD SVR STORMS MAY PRODUCE DMGG WIND
GUSTS/HAIL ALONG THE STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING FROM
SRN CO INTO WRN NM. THESE STORMS WILL REACH THE HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN
06-12Z IN WAKE OF THE EVENING ACTIVITY.
..RACY/GRAMS.. 10/11/2008
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