SWODY1
SPC AC 121224
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2008
VALID 121300Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AND POWERFUL UPPER LOW OVER
NV/UT WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALSO...REMNANTS OF
NORBERT ARE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO YIELD A
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
SOUTHWEST TX INTO WESTERN KS.
...NM/TX/OK/SWRN KS...
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF WEST
TX...EASTERN NM...EASTERN CO...AND WESTERN KS HAVE RESULTED IN A
PLUME OF UPPER 50S+ SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT WILL STREAM
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING
RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...
STRONG HEATING AND MID LEVEL DRYING WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE
CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NM CREATING A STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ZONE. THE PRIMARY VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT WILL
APPROACH THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL BE IN FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR /30-40
KNOTS/ SUGGESTING A RISK OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL
STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO WEST TX/SOUTHEAST
CO/SOUTHWEST KS WHERE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN A RISK
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR AND HELICITY WILL
ALSO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG A NARROW AXIS NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER INTO
SOUTHWEST KS.
...ERN CO/WRN NEB/NWRN KS...
FARTHER NORTH...THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS MORE UNCERTAIN OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN CO/WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS. THE PRIMARY SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THIS
AREA BY AFTERNOON ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ANAFRONTAL
PROCESSES MAY ULTIMATELY RESULT IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT LIMITING OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
..HART/GRAMS.. 10/12/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment