SWODY1
SPC AC 150506
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2008
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
INCREASINGLY ZONAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE TODAY AS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS...WITH PROGRESSIVE/LOW
AMPLITUDE WESTERLIES DOMINATING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE AS RELATED TO TSTM POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS/ARKLATEX.
...PORTIONS OF AR/MO TO DOWNSTATE IL/INDIANA...
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. PARTIALLY
MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL
PREVAIL IN THE PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM THE ARKLATEX VICINITY
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS TODAY. WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND BROKEN CLOUD COVER WILL LARGELY LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND TSTM VIGOR...BUT UP TO 500 J/KG MLCAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
PEAK HEATING PROVIDED SUFFICIENT CLOUD BREAKS. WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY...INCREASINGLY STRONG FLOW ALOFT...WITH 40-50 KT MID
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WOULD
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SEMI-ORGANIZED TSTMS
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SMALL LINEAR CLUSTERS. AS SUCH...A MARGINAL
THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE WEAK THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONSIDERABLY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..GUYER/JEWELL.. 10/15/2008
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