SWODY1
SPC AC 210035
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2008
VALID 210100Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRANSLATING THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN
ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NW INTO NRN ROCKIES. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE FRONT HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM SRN
OK WWD INTO E-CNTRL NM. THIS BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDS GENERALLY NWD
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TO LOW PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA.
THE NRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT
WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER ERN WY.
WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS REMAINED LIMITED...DIABATIC
HEATING COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A STEEP LAPSE RATE AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS PER 00Z ABQ SOUNDING. THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT
ALONG WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES HAVE FOSTERED SCATTERED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT FROM CNTRL CO SWWD INTO CNTRL/ERN NM. VERTICAL SHEAR IS
RELATIVELY STRONG /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 45-50 KT/...PARTICULARLY
OVER NM OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK
OVER THE SRN ROCKIES INTO SRN PLAINS. AS SUCH...ONGOING STORMS MAY
POSE A THREAT FOR SOME SMALL HAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...PRIOR TO THE COOLING/STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREAFTER...STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MORE
ELEVATED TSTMS OVERNIGHT EWD INTO WRN KS AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY.
..MEAD.. 10/21/2008
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