SWODY1
SPC AC 101537
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG/COLD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SWD ACROSS WRN
U.S. CENTER OF CIRCULATION BY 12Z SAT WILL BE VICINITY SRN NV WITH A
VERY STRONG MID/UPPER JET MAX ROTATING SWD ALONG CA COAST AND INLAND
ACROSS AZ BY TONIGHT.
...SERN AZ/SWRN NM...
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE NORBERT IS BEING DRAWN N/NEWD ACROSS NWRN
MEXICO INTO SERN AZ/NM BY THE INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE W.
COMBINED WITH HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...INSTABILITY WILL BE
INCREASING THRU THE AFTERNOON SERN THIRD OF AZ INTO SWRN NM WITH
MLCAPES CLIMBING TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
50S FROM TUS EWD. WITH 40-50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER/NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN. PARAMETERS SUPPORT
PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE WITH BRIEF SUPERCELLS ALSO
POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
...SERN FL...
WEAKENING UPPER LOW NEAR SERN GA COAST WILL DRIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE.
WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED FL PENINSULA PAST 24
HOURS...VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE
INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG...VICINITY OF THE E COAST SEA BREEZE WHERE SHEAR
AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST. WHILE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL...A FEW WET MICRO
BURSTS ARE LIKELY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH MORE INTENSE
CORES. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH CESSATION OF DAYTIME HEATING.
..HALES/HURLBUT.. 10/10/2008
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