SWODY1
SPC AC 251613
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2008
VALID 251630Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MID ATLANTIC INTO NY/NEW ENGLAND...
A DEEP UPPER LOW IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND BASE OF LOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND AID IN
THE INTENSIFICATION OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUE TO
DRAW 60S DEWPOINTS INTO PARTS OF NC/VA/MD/DE...ALTHOUGH WATER
TEMPERATURES OFF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SUGGEST DEWPOINTS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE MID 60S IN THIS AREA. CLOUD COVER AND SUPPRESSED
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY
250-500 J/KG.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN PA/NJ SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN
VA/NORTHEAST NC BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL HAVE GREATEST RISK OF
ATTAINING SEVERE INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST
VA/NORTHEAST NC WHERE STRONGEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT. HERE...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE AFFECT OF THE APPROACHING MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE REGION BY MID
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA VARY FROM SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE STORMS...TO UNSUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION. WE CONSIDERED
UPGRADING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NC/SOUTHEAST VA TO SLIGHT RISK...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR NOW AND WILL RE-ASSESS AT
20Z.
FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED CELLS COULD RESULT IN
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS FROM DE/MD INTO EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
..HART/JEWELL.. 10/25/2008
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