SWODY1
SPC AC 121611
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2008
VALID 121630Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP/COLD UPPER LOW OVER INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL BE
LIFTING NEWD AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MAKES ONLY
SLOW EWD PROGRESS. EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS/MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF NORBERT HAVE BEEN ENTRAINED INTO THE
STRONG SWLY FLOW ON E SIDE OF WRN TROUGH. RESULT IS EVEN WITH A VERY
MOIST SLY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL
ZONE...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL SD SSWWD TO SURFACE LOW
SERN CO THEN INTO MEX W OF ELP. FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW SEWD PROGRESS
THRU THE PERIOD AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS OF CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM SRN NEB TO SWRN TX.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIMITED HEATING...POOR LAPSE RATES AND
LITTLE OVERALL EWD MOVEMENT OF UPPER SYSTEM TO THE W...HAVE LOWERED
THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR THIS FORECAST.
WITH 50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM ERN NM
INTO WRN KS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF BRIEF ROTATING STORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS INHIBITION WEAKENS. STRONG...ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO SEEM TO BE THE LIMIT OF SEVERE
THREAT...THUS THE REDUCTION OF THE PROBABILITIES.
..HALES/LEVIT.. 10/12/2008
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