SWODY1
SPC AC 030057
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2008
VALID 030100Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ERN
CONUS TROUGHING S OF UPPER LOW OVER QUE...AND HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING
FROM NWRN MEX NWD ACROSS SASK AND BEYOND. WRN RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE
EWD AND DEAMPLIFY WITH TIME DURING NEXT FEW DAYS...AND LATEST UPPER
AIR DATA INDICATES THIS PROCESS HAS BEGUN...WITH STG UPPER JET
DIGGING BEHIND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT IS ANALYZED FROM ERN
GULF OF AK SEWD ACROSS SIERRA NV RANGE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER
WRN PORTIONS ORE/WA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD AND DEAMPLIFY WHILE
SECOND TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY NEAR
44N140W -- MOVES EWD TOWARD COAST AND REINFORCES BROADER SCALE
TROUGHING.
AT SFC...RESIDUAL/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER OVER
PORTIONS S-CENTRAL FL...WHILE PRONOUNCED RIDGING PERSISTS FROM
N-CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SWWD ACROSS NWRN GULF. LEE TROUGHING
WILL CONTINUE OVER HIGH PLAINS...FROM MT TO VICINITY TX/NM BORDER.
...SRN PLAINS...
OUTFLOW CURRENT ACCOMPANYING BAND OF EXISTING TSTMS OVER TX
PANHANDLE MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO OVERCOME THAT CAPPING FOR
ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS. THEREAFTER AND ELSEWHERE...POTENTIAL FOR
SFC-BASED TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING
HOURS AS SFC DIABATIC COOLING INCREASES SBCINH IN ABSENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY FOCI FOR CONVECTION. NARROW CORRIDOR OF AT
LEAST MRGL MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP ABOVE SFC
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANYING LLJ THAT SHOULD VEER FROM SLY TO SWLY AND
STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KT AROUND 09Z. THIS PROCESS...ALONG WITH
ELEVATED WAA AND ACCOMPANYING DESTABILIZATION...MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS ERN TX PANHANDLE
AND/OR WRN OK LATE TONIGHT INTO PRE-DAWN HOURS. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ELEVATED MUCAPES UP TO ABOUT 300 J/KG MAY BE AVAILABLE TO
PARCELS THAT CAN BE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY TO ROUGHLY 600 MB LFC.
...INTERIOR NW...
FAVORABLE LOW-MIDLEVEL DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED IN SUPPORT OF
TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME WRN ORE AND MOVING INTO SWRN ID.
COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER SFC HEATING...DEW POINTS MID 40S TO LOW 50S
F AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ALOFT IS KEEPING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
FAVORABLY STEEP. RAOBS LIKELY DID NOT SAMPLE ZONE OF STRONGEST DPVA
ALOFT AHEAD OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH BOI SOUNDING TOO FAR
E AND MFD RAOB JUST BEHIND TROUGH. AS NEAR-SFC LAYER COOLS NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO PEAK THEN
DECLINE...HOWEVER...MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STG GUSTS.
..EDWARDS.. 10/03/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment