SWODY1
SPC AC 091629
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT THU OCT 09 2008
VALID 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE SE ATLANTIC
COAST...
...SE ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...
A CLOSED/VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EWD OVER SRN
GA/N FL THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SSWWD FROM THE LOW IN GA ACROSS N FL INTO THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHILE ANOTHER E-W FRONTAL SEGMENT IS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL
GA INTO SRN SC. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AOA 70 F AND SURFACE
HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE ONGOING STORMS WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES AND STORM-SCALE OUTFLOWS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS N/NE
FL...SE GA...INTO SRN SC. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
BOTH SUPERCELLS AND EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES TO THE E OF THE MID LEVEL
LOW. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR WITH STORM-BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS.
OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN GA AS SURFACE
HEATING OCCURS BENEATH THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL...AND IN THE WAKE OF
THE MORNING CONVECTION. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
...ELSEWHERE...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NE CA/NW NV WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS AMPLIFYING WAVE -- THE PAC NW COAST AND THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION WITH MEXICO TODAY...AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT.
A MARGINAL THREAT FOR LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST TODAY
ALONG THE WA/ORE COASTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGH AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES. ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTENING WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD FROM NW
MEXICO TOWARD THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL
WAA/FRONTOGENESIS WILL BECOME FOCUSED TO THE N OF A LEE CYCLONE OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PERSISTENT LIFT...ADVECTION OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM THE W/SW...AND SOME MOISTENING FROM THE S WILL ALL
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 10/09/2008
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