DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241631
SWODY1
SPC AC 241628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL THROUGH SERN GA AND THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...

A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS INDICATED OVER THE NRN GULF JUST WEST OF
APALACHICOLA FL WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE NE GULF.
A WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE LOW THROUGH NRN FL AND SE GA. RICH
GULF MOISTURE EXISTS SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70
FROM THE NE GULF THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN FL.

CLOSED UPPER LOW IS LIFTING NE THROUGH THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY WITH
A WEAKER IMPULSE EJECTING THROUGH THE NERN GULF. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH S GA/NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW...WARM FRONT AND
ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT NE WHICH WILL PROMOTE ADVECTION OF
RICHER GULF MOISTURE INLAND THROUGH S GA AND THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
INLAND PENETRATION OF RICHER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BY A WEDGE OF
COLDER AIR ACROSS GA AND CAROLINAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWD EXTENTION
OF NERN U.S. CP HIGH PRESSURE.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN RESULTING FROM AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WELL AS WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT INSTABILITY OVER THIS REGION. ADVECTION OF
RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PARTIAL CLOUD BREAKS WILL RESULT IN
SOME BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...BUT MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG.

THIS AFTERNOON A MARGINAL THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL
EXIST IN A NARROW ZONE MAINLY IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE
FL PANHANDLE INTO N CNTRL FL WHERE A SMALL OVERLAP MAY OCCUR BETWEEN
RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WHERE LARGER 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS EXIST.
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THE THREAT WILL SHIFT NEWD THROUGH
SE GA AND THE COASTAL CAROLINAS IN VICINITY OF DEVELOPING COASTAL
BOUNDARY. ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR JUSTIFIED AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THE VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A
POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK.

..DIAL/JEWELL.. 10/24/2008

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