SWODY1
SPC AC 131926
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2008
VALID 132000Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY...
THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN WI SWWD THROUGH CNTRL
OK AND SE NM. NRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACCELERATE EAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE SRN PORTION OF
THE FRONT SETTLES MORE SLOWLY SSEWD. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS WRN TX WHERE EWD ADVANCING UPPER LOW AND
STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
POST FRONTAL ZONE. OTHERWISE...LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE IN PRE-FRONTAL
ZONE FROM S THROUGH NW TX. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SPARSE IN MUCH OF THIS REGION.
...FL...
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEEP MOIST WEAKLY CAPPED THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE AREAS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 30-35 KT ELY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. WEAK BULK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...BUT ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY
SOME STORMS.
..DIAL.. 10/13/2008
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