SWODY1
SPC AC 031247
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT FRI OCT 03 2008
VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NERN OK INTO THE OZARKS...
DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE PAC NW EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE WRN STATES THROUGH
TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...SWLY LLJ WILL INTENSIFY OVER NWRN
TX/WRN-CENTRAL OK OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO NERN OK/SERN KS/SWRN
MO/NWRN AR AFTER 09Z ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPMENT
OF ELEVATED STORMS/POSSIBLE MCS BY 12Z ACROSS THIS REGION. MUCAPE
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT
OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY WITH THE INITIAL UPDRAFTS.
OVERALL WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE
OF ANY SEVERE THREAT.
...WESTERN STATES...
BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SETTLING OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY...WITH
COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INVOF HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL LIKELY BE COMMON AHEAD OF
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE PAC NW.
..EVANS/HURLBUT.. 10/03/2008
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