Friday, October 31, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010019
SWODY1
SPC AC 010016

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...

STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND ASCENT ATTENDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SE
THROUGH AR WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. STRONGER LIFT IS SHIFTING SE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS
TOWARD MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD
REMAIN SPORADIC AND ISOLATED.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND MODERATELY STEEP
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE AREAS OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANY
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN VERY ISOLATED AND SPORADIC WITH
COVERAGE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10%.

..DIAL.. 11/01/2008

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