SWODY1
SPC AC 110058
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...E AZ EWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES/HIPLNS...
CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN WAS OCCURRING ALONG/S OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING WITH GOES SATL PWAT VALUES
SUGGESTING AROUND 1.75 INCH AT HERMOSILLO AND NEAR 1 INCH INTO SE
AZ/NM BOOTHEEL. TSTMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING WITHIN THE HIGH-LVL
OUTFLOW JET OF HURCN NORBERT OVER NRN/CNTRL SONORA AND ARE BEGINNING
TO INCREASE DOWNSTREAM INTO SE AZ/SW NM. EXPECT THE LOW-LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE MOISTENING VIA TSTM OUTFLOWS AND/OR ADVECTIVE PROCESSES
THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER MUCH OF E/SE AZ...NM AND FAR W TX. AT THE
SAME TIME...MID-LVL COOLING VIA LIFT/MOISTENING WILL OCCUR AS LARGER
SCALE FLOW BACKS IN TANDEM WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL SPEED
MAX ASSOCD WITH THE GRT BASIN UPR LOW. THE UPSHOT WILL BE FOR
MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND AN INCREASING THREAT FOR TSTMS OVER A
LARGE PART OF ERN AZ INTO THE SRN ROCKIES/HIPLNS BY 12Z SATURDAY.
BACKING FLOW REGIME WILL INCREASE TO NEARLY 50 KTS AT H5
OVERNIGHT...ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES. AMIDST THE
EXPANDING BANDED STRUCTURE OF THE CONVECTION...EMBEDDED STRONGER AND
PSBLY SVR CELLS WILL EXIST. FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW PROFILE
COULD FAVOR SPLITTING CELLS WITH LEFT MOVERS TRANSLATING QUICKLY NWD
WITH LARGE HAIL. HIGHEST SVR PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS SE AZ AND
SW NM CLOSER TO THE STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES/UPR TROUGH.
..RACY.. 10/11/2008
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