SWODY2
SPC AC 101728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE
CNTRL ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING AS SPEED MAX ROTATES THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO NM/CO LATE. AT THE SFC...DOMINANT LOW
OVER SERN UT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CO WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
MOISTURE WILL EASILY RETURN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BOTH FROM THE
PACIFIC AND FROM FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OFF THE WRN GULF
OF MEXICO. LATEST SATELLITE/MODEL DATA SUGGEST A VERY RICH FEED OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NEWD ACROSS MEXICO INTO NM EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE
MARKEDLY OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM WEST TX INTO NM...AND OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN ROCKIES. VALUES COULD EASILY
APPROACH 1.5 INCHES...AND WITH LAYERED CLOUDINESS SUNSHINE WILL
LIKELY BE IMPEDED SOMEWHAT. THIS SHOULD REDUCE POTENTIAL BUOYANCY
WITHIN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. EVEN SO...SBCAPE VALUES
SHOULD RISE ABOVE 500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACTUALLY SUGGEST SUPERCELLS WILL EVOLVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT
RISK REGION DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. VERY FAVORABLE DEEP
VEERING PROFILES WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50KT WOULD
CERTAINLY SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN EVOLUTION FROM SUPERCELLS INTO LINE SEGMENTS
OR PERHAPS AN ELONGATED SQUALL LINE BY LATE EVENING FROM ERN NM INTO
SWRN KS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL
SEEM POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SCENARIO ABOVE.
..DARROW.. 10/10/2008
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