DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 220557
SWODY2
SPC AC 220556

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2008

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AS IT DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW OVER KS SHOULD FILL WITH TIME DUE TO THE
VERTICALLY-STACKED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

...LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE LIMITED THIS
PERIOD...AS MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION IS OFFSET BY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT. THIS LACK OF
INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO PLAY A KEY ROLE IN LIMITING THE OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD.

HAVING SAID THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY
REGION...AND WILL CONTINUE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY OFFSET BY SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...LIKELY ALLOWING A FEW STRONGER STORMS/STORM
CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP -- PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED...WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY
TO REFLECT A LOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND -- OR EVEN AN ISOLATED/BRIEF
TORNADO.

...ELSEWHERE...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS S FL
THIS PERIOD...WHERE A SELY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD PERSIST. WHILE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED DUE TO VERY WEAK LAPSE
RATES...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR SUGGESTS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO. ATTM...WILL
NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITY AS THE THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED
TO WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A THREAT AREA.

..GOSS.. 10/22/2008

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