SWODY2
SPC AC 260547
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2008
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG...DIGGING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL
DEVELOP SEWD FROM THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AMPLIFICATION AND EWD PROGRESSION OF LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
NEAR 135W/31N WILL TRANSLATE NEWD EVENTUALLY ONTO THE NRN CA/ORE
COASTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE LEADING EDGE OF A
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH S TX...THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND FL.
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK
TROUGH OR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH MI AND EVENTUALLY LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO MONDAY. LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES OF 10-15 C COUPLED
WITH A COLD THERMAL PROFILES WITHIN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AXIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. AS SUCH...SOME OF THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS FORMING ALONG THE ABOVE-MENTIONED FRONT/TROUGH WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LIGHTNING OVER AND IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY MORNING WHERE AMBIENT AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE.
..MEAD.. 10/26/2008
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