SWODY2
SPC AC 031703
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT FRI OCT 03 2008
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD AS STRONG
ERN PACIFIC UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK DIGS SEWD INTO THE LOWER CO
VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...A SERIES OF WEAKER LEAD IMPULSES WILL
ROTATE NEWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS...UPSTREAM FROM
MEAN RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EWD FROM THE PLAINS INTO MS VALLEY.
...SRN PLAINS...
PER LATEST DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS
MAY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING OVER NERN OK ALONG NOSE OF NOCTURNAL
LLJ WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG ERN
EDGE OF EML/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME. A FEW OF THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH
MID-MORNING...PRIOR TO THE DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE LLJ.
...MIDWEST...
A NW-SE ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL PART OF THE NATION OWING TO PRESSURE FALLS/LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING
WILL OCCUR FROM THE SRN LOW PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MO VALLEY WITH
DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S. THE PRESENCE OF THE EML/CAP
AND LOCATION OF MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG RETREATING SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE. THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR TSTMS /MAINLY ELEVATED/
WILL BE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT TO THE N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG NOSE
OF NOCTURNAL LLJ. HERE...MOISTENING WILL OCCUR BENEATH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME...RESULTING IN POCKETS OF MODERATE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL.
...GREAT BASIN INTO LOWER CO VALLEY AND THE SRN ROCKIES...
CONSIDERABLE DYNAMIC COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF
DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL EFFECTIVELY STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WHILE A FEW OF THE STRONGER/MORE PERSISTENT STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...IT APPEARS THAT THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.
..MEAD.. 10/03/2008
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