SWODY3
SPC AC 200730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2008
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A RAPIDLY-DEEPENING CLOSED LOW
THIS PERIOD. MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION/MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW...BUT IN GENERAL SHOULD RESIDE INVOF SERN NEB/ERN KS/WRN MO
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY SEWD...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SEWD AS WELL...ALLOWING COLD AIR TO SPREAD
SEWD ACROSS OK/AR/TX/LA. THE FRONT -- LIKELY TO CROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY LATE -- SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...SERN OK/E TX/SRN AR/THE NRN 2/3 OF LA/WRN MS...
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AS IT SHIFTS SEWD. WHILE WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT CAPE
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS SERN OK/E TX
INTO AR/LA THROUGH THE EVENING.
WHILE MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- PARTICULARLY FROM CENTRAL LA
NWD -- SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED CELLS WITHIN
BROADER AREA OF PRECIPITATION. STRONGEST STORMS/LINE SEGMENTS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY-GUSTY WINDS...AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE. WHILE OVERALL THREAT...HOWEVER...SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED...WILL INTRODUCE A LOW PROBABILITY /5%/ THREAT AREA THIS
FORECAST. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WANES.
..GOSS.. 10/20/2008
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